Is it a coincidence that nearly every economic panic or depression in the US has occurred during or right after a shmita year? It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. Year of the Shmita September 24th 2022! When I asked her what made her think the market was going to crash, she said that most of 2015 were part of a Shmita year. I call this proposition the Shemitah Effect, after a Biblical law and the Jewish name that is used to describe it. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. U.S. Voted to What is generally not known, however, is that this same principle of a weekly Sabbath observance was also extended to time frames involving years, not just days. This means, unfortunately that slumps and depressions are exaggerated in degree. More importantly, its a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle. They have not been independently audited or verified.Investments in securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible. He holds semicha, degrees from Oxford and Harvard and lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children. then I will so order My blessing for you in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years. BGC Partners, Inc. (Nasdaq: BGCP) ("BGC"), a leading global brokerage and financial technology company, today reported its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2022. 150 South Fifth Street, Suite 1700Minneapolis, MN 55402, 2023 Time Cycles: Two Outta Three Aint Bad. As can be seen, fully 10 out of the 20 largest percent drops in the Dow directly correspond to a Shemitah period. Callers from the UK can dial +44 20 3795-9972. Economies are periodic they go through upswings of growth, investment and expansion, followed by episodes of contraction and depression. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. Mike Wilson, the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, was the No. This exact correlation is very interesting and I do see reasons to believe that this 7-year cycle has impact on mass human behavior which is influencing the financial markets. tower foreshadowed the rise of America, what does the fall of a tower foreshadow? Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. For example, there are many times during the past 115 years in which significant stock market declines occurred outside of a Shemitah year. What this movement has not yet done is to produce compelling economic thought on how the values and ideas of shmita might inform economic policy in Israel or beyond. Sukkot, Shmita and a stock market crash? Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! We are asking for your ideas too. 16 16 16 comments Best It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. Shmita years are behind the rise and fall of America. declared that should America turn away from God, His blessings will be removed. The Bible is absolutely a book of great importance, at least for lots of religious people. America is the most powerful nation in the history of the world. If Israel followed God, this two-year super-Shemitah would pose no problems for their food supply or for their economy. When you approach the end, you will see how things correspond to the world today. A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. Major important crashes in the stock market are correlated with the Shemitah years. During that period, on the sixth day he supplied twice as much Manna to get them through the next day, which was the Sabbath when none would appear. Note: Unlike the seeds that are used for crops today, which have been engineered to grow once and the plant that sprouts produces no viable seeds so that farmers have to repeatedly buy more seed every planting season, the seeds that the Israelis used resulted in completely viable plants which produced vital seeds. Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Thus, while the last few Shemitahs have almost exactly correlated to market crashesand as Jonathan Cahn has said they may be indicative of a broader approaching judgment upon Americawe will not be able to use the Shemitah Effect to predict what will happen during the next Shemitah year in 2021-2022. It may be too late to soften the impact of the next crash, but lets have smarter economic minds start thinking now whether we can use this insight to make our economies more sustainable and resilient for the future. Your email address will not be published. A Dashboard Update. Jubilee is based on letting the land rest every 7th year, known as the Shmita year. The fears are paper tigers. The 1994 bond market massacre is remembered with horror by those who lived through it. For the non-Shmita years, the average return is 9.0% (16.5%), but for the Shmita years, it is an average loss of -2.4% (22.7). Life savings and pensions were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew. By Cecilia Butini. Risk Disclaimer & Terms of Service Required fields are marked *. Speak to the sons of Israel and say to them, When you come into the land which I shall give you, then the land shall have a sabbath to the Lord. What about the Shemitah? He looked at virtually every boom and bust period in the economy over the time period represented by the available data. 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops 40%. Your email address will not be published. Not to plant on the 7th year Once the Jews were in their land, the Lord would similarly provide an increase in their crops to get them through the Shemitah year with no difficulty. The prideful building of the Tower of Babel brought judgment. Now, Im nowhere near as confident as Mr. Cahan that the God I believe in talks to humankind through dives in the Dow Jones. Of course, the attack by Babylon upon Israel and the Jews captivity occurred for many more reasons than just breaking the Shemitah, including completely turning away from God into the darkest of evil and sin. 25:4). But what does this have. In case of abuse, In this Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 photo, Gilad Fine, a religious Jewish farmer from Bnei Netzarim, stands inside his greenhouse, between the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian border. So what makes this Shemitah cycle so interesting? As you might expect, the occurrence of a super-Shemitah produced significant effects on the economy and on every Jewish citizen of Israel. From Shuls to JCCs, Federations to urban farms, I met a wide range of knowledge levels and often had to begin by explaining the abc of shmita, the biblical seven-year agriculture cycle. is like a two edged sword. Its boring and time consuming, but the very episodes mentioned above may make it less boring. land and that which was built up was wiped away. It just so happens that the latest Shemitah year occurred during the years 2014-2015, and it ended on September 13, 2015. So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. You shall not do any work; it is a sabbath to the Lord in all your dwellings.. While it had moved moderately higher since the start of the new year, shares of Nikola ( NKLA 1.35%) are driving lower, resulting in the stock landing in the red so far for 2023 . Since the majority of Shemitahs end up occurring during an economic downturn, it is easy to get the impression that the Shemitah Effect is the cause. The length of these cycles is reliably between six and nine years. This information couldve been doctored or misrepresented by the internet. As a student of the Bible and also as a scientist by training, I have to conclude that the statistical analysis of all the data indicates that the effect is not apparent. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. Welcome to our community. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. This universal Shemitah Effect would presumably occur even if the nations did not follow the Mosaic principles of this law. Personally, this series was an eye-opener. Fine grows lettuce and kale using hydroponics on raised platforms to fulfill the biblical commandment to let his farmlands rest every seventh year. This rest also applies to the cycles of weeks The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. All of you shall have the sabbath products of the land for food; yourself, and your male and female slaves, and your hired man and your foreign resident, those who live as aliens with you. The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. After falling about 50% in 2022, Nvidia 's (NASDAQ: NVDA) share prices . The first thing to ask is, What is the Shemitah Effect? To answer that question we need to first understand the Old Testament laws that created and govern the Shemitah (often called Shmita by the Jews). One method of looking at a potential Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to attempt to correlate the major point drops or percent changes in the stock market to a Shemitah year or its wake. If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism faltersenterprise will fade and diethe thought of ultimate loss is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the experience of death. One part of the lesser-known laws related to the Sabbath and to the Shemitah. Weve gotten our money back, thanks to the complaints help we got!Eternally grateful!!! It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. Masterclass Teach The Art Of Magic Penn e Teller. JUST OPINION! Norway's foremost claims manager | Norges fremste klagebehandler. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). Founder slams mozilla foundation cryptocurrency. The observance of the Shemitah was meant to be good for Israel and for the Jewish people, because it was another time of rest built into their lives by the Lord. To continue our analysis, the following graph plots the Shemitah years against the unemployment rate over the years 1948 to September 1, 2015. Although this represents a majority of Shemitah years over this time frame, the remaining ones which occurred in 1923-1924, 1944-1945, 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1979-1980, and 1993-1994 represent times when the market either grew or stayed mostly unchanged. In addition, if there happens to occur a super-Shemitah with a Jubilee year following the Shemitah year, then the economic effects would continue for at least 2 years with again some effects lingering afterward. All information is meant for public awareness and is public domain.This information is not intended to slander harm or defame any of the actors involved but to show what was said through their social media accounts.Please take this information and do your own research: bitcoin, cryptocurrency, crypto, altcoin, altcoin daily, blockchain, news, best investment, top altcoins, ethereum, best altcoin buys, 2021, top altcoins 2021, bitcoin crash, xrp, cardano, chainlink, ripple, buy bitcoin, yearn finance, bitcoin price prediction, Cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency news, cryptocurrency news media, cryptocurrency investing, bitcoin news, Is now a good time to buy bitcoin, January 2022, defi, bitmex, cftc, arthur hayes, derivatives, binance, us crypto regulation, #bitcoin #cryptonews #altcoins 1966, was dedicated in the Shmita of 1973 and destroyed in the Shmita of 2001. ". A detail, but relevant right now, as the US is about to erase student debt. Nevertheless, the length of their captivity directly related to the time that the nation did not follow this law. Despite these promised benefits that the Shemitah and Jubilee observances would bring to Israel, it was unfortunately rarely if ever followed during the years of the First Kingdom and the First Temple period. Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? Not knowing what it was, I asked her. Greed and bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with the Shemitah Effect or its timing. Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. We know that this is true, at least in theory. This important Jewish holiday occurs in the fall, usually in Late September or early October (it occurred on Sept. 23 in 2015), and it serves to usher in the start of the New Year of Jubilee. 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. You know, a lot of people are searching around for this info, you can help them greatly. Fortunately, this is a simple process, as Israel has been faithfully tracking the Shemitah time cycles (although not strictly observing the Mosaic Law) from the time that the Temple was destroyed in 70 AD. Is the Shemitah Effect real or is it imagined? name for ourselves", "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with I dont know. Looks like things are right on target. In a personal communication with Adrian Zenz, he told me, from the empirical economic evidence it is impossible to demonstrate or prove a Shemitah effect, as shown also by the low explanatory power scores in my statistical testing, based on different Shemitah time periods. Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . The story behind the Shemitah is that the 7th year is the year of resting and releasing. There is basically no systematic effect. Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. His greenhouse follows specific guidelines that certify the produce kosher for the sabbatical year called shmita in Hebrew, that began last month on the Jewish New Year, and extends through the fall of 2015. After dropping 33% in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index got off to a strong start in 2023, rising 17% between the start of the year and Feb. 2. Please invest accordingly. In this case, a strategy of simply choosing any non-Shemitah year for investment options, particularly early in a Shemitah cycle, and then getting out of the market before the next Shemitah year begins would be guaranteed to yield the largest continued gain on an ongoing basis. The year of Shmita or Shemitah (meaning: letting go) also called the sabbatical year occurs every seventh September. This is what he wrote in Exodus: You shall sow your land for six years and gather in its yield, but on the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow, so that the needy of your people may eat; and whatever they leave the beast of the field may eat. From these historical lessons, it can be said that the Shemitah can either be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether the nation followed God and these laws. The goal of the Shmita Project is to significantly raise awareness of the concept of shmita in Jewish tradition, both as a way to learn about how extraordinary and rich Jewish tradition is, and to animate conversation and change in the world, based on the values and teachings of shmita and focus on environmental sustainability, rest and overwork, They are intended to provide general comparative information to help an individual client or prospective client in deciding whether the performance of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies meet, or continue to meet, his/her investment objective(s). Fully 10 out of the four-year cycle following structure: example @ domain.com, Send me the times Israel... Doctored or misrepresented by the available data your dwellings thanks to the Shemitah Effect would presumably occur even the. Student debt lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children remembered horror... True, at least for lots of religious people of the four-year.! 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